Probablilities

[Editor's note: This interesting exchange appeared on the one of the 2x2-related internet news lists.

Subject: Probabilities

In 1994, I asked the head worker in Ireland (Tommy Gamble) the following 2 questions:

Why were 99% of new converts children of members?
Did the 1,000,000,000 people in China, where there are a handful of workers, have an equal chance of salvation?

The responses to the above questions were to the effect that if someone's "heart was right", they would meet the workers.

If we assume the following:

World population = 7,000,000,000;
Number of 2x2s = 100,000 [editor's note: estimates of 2x2 numbers vary, depending on what criterion are used];
95% of the current population of 2x2s are born and raised ("B&R") in the group (i.e. there are currently 5000 outsiders who have professed);
50% of children raised by 2x2 parents profess and remain in the group;
2x2 is the only way to be saved, and all 2x2s are saved.

Then we can draw the following conclusions:

Overall, the probability of being saved is 0.0000143 (i.e. 1 in 70,000 are saved));
For the child of an outsider, the probability of being saved is 0.00000071 (i.e. 1 in 1,400,000);
For the child of an insider, the probability of being saved is 0.5 (i.e. 1 in 2);
From 1, 2 and 3, it can be concluded that a child raised in a 2x2 home is 700,000 times more likely to be saved.

I anticipate that the workers' answer to conclusions 1 and 2 is that "narrow is the way, and few there be that find it". How then could they explain conclusion 4?

Is the 'good fortune' of B&R children due to nature (genes), nurture (indoctrination) or divine choice (a chosen people)?

I'd be interested to hear any thoughts, particularly from 2x2 list members who believe that 2x2 is the 'only way'.

Puzzled,
Robert
(Belfast, N Ireland)

Reply Regarding: Probabilities

As a non B&R I asked the worker I profess through about the FEW concept as it bothered me too.

Here is how it was generally explained;

"The few way is God's way, it is so now, and has been the so from the beginning. It is from God's word, and the word was from the beginning, as his way is from the beginning. In God's way there are few. By this you can know if you have found God's true way or mans way. While God desires ALL would be saved, only a few WILL be saved. If you find a way where many are saved then it's that's a broad way, and not God's way."

We were then told about this verse:

"'…as in the days of Noah so shall the last days be'. These are the last days, and we were told how to know that these are the last days. Then came the story to prove the FEW, the story of how God saves men—like in Noah's day it is today."

In this proof, being part of the family improves your odds of being saved. After the Noah story, everybody wanted to be in the ark, part of the FEW.

The message was: "Parents get in the ark now, do it for your kids sake, and save yourself in the process. How lucky we were to find this ONE and only ark (remember God only makes one way to be saved—one ark). God's plan to be saved is simple a child can understand it: it's based on a simple 2x2 concept. God calling the animals 2x2, and the people 2x2 in the ark to be saved, he sent his true servants 2x2. This was/is God's simple plan of salvation, and it continues from the beginning."

Now time to test the meeting. No better arguments to give; give the final call. Tell them that you are closing the door—come in now and be saved.

I have heard it this way many times. This FEW, the saved, 2x2 way. This story is mandatory for a gospel mission and the story works. All true fishers of men are armed with this lure.

From the story of Noah, I learned that picking the right parents improves your odds of getting to heaven. Only Noah and his immediate family were saved by God. But for us non-B&R [born and raised] the odds were greater, we had to work hard to find the worker (Noah) to be saved in the ark (Jesus).

The professing are blessed, in that their kids' odds of being saved automatically improve. But, just because you profess doesn't guarantee they would be saved. Your being right with God, and being a good example improved their odds to make it to a good eternity. Don't all Christian's think this way? I suspect a lot of parents go to meeting just for the kids' sake. What they don't realize is, if that's the case, the kids know why they go. I suspect it's not unique to the 2x2.

PS1: Were the odds better the last time God saved men during the big flood? Wasn't it eight saved out of ____ ?

PS2: I suspect that in the mind of most 2x2's if you are reading this post, then you have the absolute worst odds of being saved?

PS3: As a 2x2 even if I made it to heaven I wasn't still 100% assured that it would be my permanent address. As I was reminded of those fallen from heaven and no longer their (few of the few concept).

Narrow way indeed!

Regards,
Bradley Teets

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